Yverdon Sport II 0–4 Stade Payerne: Result & Stats

Yverdon Sport II

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 4

Stade Payerne

4/13/2025

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Yverdon Sport II37%

×Draw22%

Stade Payerne42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yverdon Sport IIExpected goals in this matchStade Payerne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.92

Yverdon Sport II

1.80

Stade Payerne

1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

1.97

creates per match

1.77

2.07

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Yverdon Sport II

1.97

Stade Payerne

1.77

allows per match

Yverdon Sport II

2.07

Stade Payerne

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yverdon Sport II+0.00on par

Stade Payerne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yverdon Sport II ↓

Stade Payerne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Yverdon Sport II or draw

58%

Yverdon Sport II or Stade Payerne

78%

Draw or Stade Payerne

63%

Winning margin

Yverdon Sport II wins by 2+

19%

Stade Payerne wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Yverdon Sport II 1+ goals

83%

Yverdon Sport II 2+ goals

54%

Yverdon Sport II 3+ goals

27%

Stade Payerne 1+ goals

85%

Stade Payerne 2+ goals

57%

Stade Payerne 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Yverdon Sport II (draw refunded)

47%

Stade Payerne (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yverdon Sport II at home — creates 1.97, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches

Stade Payerne away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yverdon Sport II attack 1.97 + Stade Payerne defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.80

Stade Payerne attack 1.77 + Yverdon Sport II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Yverdon Sport II scores more

37%

level

22%

Stade Payerne scores more

42%

Stade Payerne at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stade Payerne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff