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Stade Payerne vs Yverdon Sport II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Stade Payerne
Stade Payerne
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Yverdon Sport II
Yverdon Sport II
9/28/20241. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Stade Payerne39%
×Draw24%
Yverdon Sport II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Payerne
1.55
Yverdon Sport II
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Stade Payerne
1.07
Yverdon Sport II
1.47

allows per match

Stade Payerne
1.53
Yverdon Sport II
2.03

finishing

Stade Payerne+0.00on par
Yverdon Sport II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Payerne ↓

Yverdon Sport II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Stade Payerne or draw
63%
Stade Payerne or Yverdon Sport II
76%
Draw or Yverdon Sport II
61%

Winning margin

Stade Payerne wins by 2+
19%
Yverdon Sport II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Stade Payerne 1+ goals
79%
Stade Payerne 2+ goals
46%
Stade Payerne 3+ goals
20%
Yverdon Sport II 1+ goals
78%
Yverdon Sport II 2+ goals
44%
Yverdon Sport II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Stade Payerne (draw refunded)
51%
Yverdon Sport II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Payerne at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

Yverdon Sport II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Payerne attack 1.07 + Yverdon Sport II defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.55

Yverdon Sport II attack 1.47 + Stade Payerne defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stade Payerne scores more
39%
level
24%
Yverdon Sport II scores more
37%

Stade Payerne at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stade Payerne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 1: Stade Payerne 1–0 Yverdon Sport II

Stade Payerne beat Yverdon Sport II 1-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Payerne.