Yverdon Sport II 0–1 Pully Football: Result & Stats

Yverdon Sport II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Pully Football

4/5/2024

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yverdon Sport II51%

×Draw21%

Pully Football28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yverdon Sport IIExpected goals in this matchPully Football

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.60

Yverdon Sport II

2.19

Pully Football

1.60

Yverdon Sport II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

1.97

creates per match

1.13

2.07

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Yverdon Sport II

1.97

Pully Football

1.13

allows per match

Yverdon Sport II

2.07

Pully Football

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yverdon Sport II+0.00on par

Pully Football+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yverdon Sport II ↓

Pully Football →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Yverdon Sport II or draw

72%

Yverdon Sport II or Pully Football

79%

Draw or Pully Football

49%

Winning margin

Yverdon Sport II wins by 2+

30%

Pully Football wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Yverdon Sport II 1+ goals

89%

Yverdon Sport II 2+ goals

64%

Yverdon Sport II 3+ goals

37%

Pully Football 1+ goals

80%

Pully Football 2+ goals

47%

Pully Football 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Yverdon Sport II (draw refunded)

64%

Pully Football (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yverdon Sport II at home — creates 1.97, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches

Pully Football away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yverdon Sport II attack 1.97 + Pully Football defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.19

Pully Football attack 1.13 + Yverdon Sport II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Yverdon Sport II scores more

51%

level

21%

Pully Football scores more

28%

Yverdon Sport II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Yverdon Sport II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff