Pully Football 1–3 Yverdon Sport II: Result & Stats

Pully Football

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Yverdon Sport II

9/23/2023

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Centre sportif de Rochettaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pully Football39%

×Draw22%

Yverdon Sport II39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pully FootballExpected goals in this matchYverdon Sport II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.83

Pully Football

1.85

Yverdon Sport II

1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

1.67

creates per match

1.47

2.20

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Pully Football

1.67

Yverdon Sport II

1.47

allows per match

Pully Football

2.20

Yverdon Sport II

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pully Football+0.00on par

Yverdon Sport II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pully Football ↓

Yverdon Sport II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Pully Football or draw

61%

Pully Football or Yverdon Sport II

78%

Draw or Yverdon Sport II

61%

Winning margin

Pully Football wins by 2+

21%

Yverdon Sport II wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Pully Football 1+ goals

84%

Pully Football 2+ goals

55%

Pully Football 3+ goals

28%

Yverdon Sport II 1+ goals

84%

Yverdon Sport II 2+ goals

54%

Yverdon Sport II 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Pully Football (draw refunded)

51%

Yverdon Sport II (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pully Football at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Yverdon Sport II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pully Football attack 1.67 + Yverdon Sport II defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.85

Yverdon Sport II attack 1.47 + Pully Football defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pully Football scores more

39%

level

22%

Yverdon Sport II scores more

39%

Pully Football at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pully Football will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff