Yupanqui 1–0 Juventud Unida: Result & Stats

Yupanqui

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Juventud Unida

4/10/2024

Primera C · Apertura - 12Estadio Juan Carlos Brieva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Yupanqui33%

×Draw30%

Juventud Unida37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YupanquiExpected goals in this matchJuventud Unida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.11

Yupanqui

1.04

Juventud Unida

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 46 away

0.99

creates per match

0.76

1.47

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Yupanqui

0.99

Juventud Unida

0.76

allows per match

Yupanqui

1.47

Juventud Unida

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yupanqui+0.00on par

Juventud Unida+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yupanqui ↓

Juventud Unida →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Yupanqui or draw

63%

Yupanqui or Juventud Unida

70%

Draw or Juventud Unida

67%

Winning margin

Yupanqui wins by 2+

13%

Juventud Unida wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Yupanqui 1+ goals

65%

Yupanqui 2+ goals

28%

Yupanqui 3+ goals

9%

Juventud Unida 1+ goals

67%

Juventud Unida 2+ goals

30%

Juventud Unida 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Yupanqui (draw refunded)

47%

Juventud Unida (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yupanqui at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

Juventud Unida away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yupanqui attack 0.99 + Juventud Unida defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Juventud Unida attack 0.76 + Yupanqui defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Yupanqui scores more

33%

level

30%

Juventud Unida scores more

37%

Juventud Unida at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Juventud Unida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff