Juventud Unida 1–0 Yupanqui: Result & Stats

Juventud Unida

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Yupanqui

9/11/2024

Primera C · Clausura - 12Estadio Ciudad de San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Juventud Unida38%

×Draw30%

Yupanqui32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventud UnidaExpected goals in this matchYupanqui

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.98

Juventud Unida

1.10

Yupanqui

0.98

Juventud Unida creates 12% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 66 away

0.88

creates per match

0.83

1.13

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Juventud Unida

0.88

Yupanqui

0.83

allows per match

Juventud Unida

1.13

Yupanqui

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventud Unida+0.00on par

Yupanqui+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Unida ↓

Yupanqui →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Juventud Unida or draw

68%

Juventud Unida or Yupanqui

70%

Draw or Yupanqui

62%

Winning margin

Juventud Unida wins by 2+

15%

Yupanqui wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Juventud Unida 1+ goals

67%

Juventud Unida 2+ goals

30%

Juventud Unida 3+ goals

10%

Yupanqui 1+ goals

62%

Yupanqui 2+ goals

26%

Yupanqui 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Juventud Unida (draw refunded)

54%

Yupanqui (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Unida at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.13 · 48 matches

Yupanqui away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.32 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Unida attack 0.88 + Yupanqui defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Yupanqui attack 0.83 + Juventud Unida defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Juventud Unida scores more

38%

level

30%

Yupanqui scores more

32%

Juventud Unida at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Juventud Unida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff