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Yupanqui vs Deportivo Muñiz — Primera C 2026

Yupanqui
Yupanqui
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Muñiz
Deportivo Muñiz
D. Albornoz 21'
7/11/2026Primera CPrimera C · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Yupanqui36%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Muñiz35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yupanqui
1.17
Deportivo Muñiz
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 47 away

creates per match

Yupanqui
0.99
Deportivo Muñiz
0.83

allows per match

Yupanqui
1.47
Deportivo Muñiz
1.34

finishing

Yupanqui+0.00on par
Deportivo Muñiz+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yupanqui ↓

Deportivo Muñiz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Yupanqui or draw
65%
Yupanqui or Deportivo Muñiz
72%
Draw or Deportivo Muñiz
64%

Winning margin

Yupanqui wins by 2+
15%
Deportivo Muñiz wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Yupanqui 1+ goals
69%
Yupanqui 2+ goals
33%
Yupanqui 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo Muñiz 1+ goals
68%
Deportivo Muñiz 2+ goals
32%
Deportivo Muñiz 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Yupanqui (draw refunded)
51%
Deportivo Muñiz (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yupanqui at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

Deportivo Muñiz away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yupanqui attack 0.99 + Deportivo Muñiz defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Deportivo Muñiz attack 0.83 + Yupanqui defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Yupanqui scores more
36%
level
28%
Deportivo Muñiz scores more
35%

Yupanqui at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Yupanqui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
D. Albornoz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yupanqui vs Deportivo Muñiz

Deportivo Muñiz beat Yupanqui 1-0 in Primera C on July 11, 2026.

Goals: D. Albornoz (21').