Deportivo Muñiz 1–4 Yupanqui: Result & Stats

Deportivo Muñiz

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Yupanqui

R. Gonzalez Lopez 11' (pen)

L. Leguizamon 90', 29'

P. Vouga 36'

L. Portillo 9'

10/4/2025

Primera C · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundEstadio de San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Deportivo Muñiz42%

×Draw29%

Yupanqui29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MuñizExpected goals in this matchYupanqui

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.97

Deportivo Muñiz

1.21

Yupanqui

0.97

Deportivo Muñiz creates 25% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 66 away

1.09

creates per match

0.83

1.11

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Deportivo Muñiz

1.09

Yupanqui

0.83

allows per match

Deportivo Muñiz

1.11

Yupanqui

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Muñiz+0.00on par

Yupanqui+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Muñiz ↓

Yupanqui →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Muñiz or draw

71%

Deportivo Muñiz or Yupanqui

71%

Draw or Yupanqui

58%

Winning margin

Deportivo Muñiz wins by 2+

18%

Yupanqui wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportivo Muñiz 1+ goals

70%

Deportivo Muñiz 2+ goals

34%

Deportivo Muñiz 3+ goals

12%

Yupanqui 1+ goals

62%

Yupanqui 2+ goals

25%

Yupanqui 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Muñiz (draw refunded)

59%

Yupanqui (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Muñiz at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.11 · 46 matches

Yupanqui away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.32 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Muñiz attack 1.09 + Yupanqui defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.21

Yupanqui attack 0.83 + Deportivo Muñiz defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportivo Muñiz scores more

42%

level

29%

Yupanqui scores more

29%

Deportivo Muñiz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportivo Muñiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

L. Portillo

11'

R. Gonzalez LopezPenalty

29'

L. Leguizamon

36'

P. Vouga

90+1'

90'

L. Leguizamon

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff