Yunnan Yukun 2–1 Wuhan Three Towns: Result & Stats

Yunnan Yukun

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Wuhan Three Towns

Han Zilong 75'

Luo Jing 35'

Li Songyi 51' (OG)

8/15/2025

Super League · Round 21Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Yunnan Yukun53%

×Draw23%

Wuhan Three Towns24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yunnan YukunExpected goals in this matchWuhan Three Towns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.15

Yunnan Yukun

1.83

Wuhan Three Towns

1.15

Yunnan Yukun creates 59% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

1.74

creates per match

1.08

1.22

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Yunnan Yukun

1.74

Wuhan Three Towns

1.08

allows per match

Yunnan Yukun

1.22

Wuhan Three Towns

1.92

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Yunnan Yukun+0.12scores more

Wuhan Three Towns-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yunnan Yukun ↓

Wuhan Three Towns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Yunnan Yukun or draw

76%

Yunnan Yukun or Wuhan Three Towns

77%

Draw or Wuhan Three Towns

47%

Winning margin

Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+

30%

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals

84%

Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals

54%

Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals

28%

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

68%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

32%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)

69%

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yunnan Yukun at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.22 · 21 matches

Wuhan Three Towns away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.92 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yunnan Yukun attack 1.74 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.83

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.08 + Yunnan Yukun defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Yunnan Yukun scores more

53%

level

23%

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

24%

Yunnan Yukun at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Yunnan Yukun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Tang Miao

Yunnan Yukun · D

7.9

Match Events

31'

Wei Long

35'

Luo Jing

41'

Zhang Chenliang← Zhang Xiangshuo

46'

M. Palacios← Wang Jinxian

51'

Li SongyiOwn goal

60'

Zheng Haoqian← Long Wei

63'

Nené

67'

Zhong Jinbao← Shen Zigui

70'

Han Zilong← Luo Jing

75'

Han Zilong↳ Tang Miao

79'

Jinbao ZhongRed card cancelled

80'

Jinbao Zhong

80'

Hang Ren← Liu Yiming

81'

Zhao Yuhao← Li Songyi

81'

Yi Teng← Ye Chugui

85'

Hang Ren

90+6'

Zhang Yufeng← A. Ionita II

90+3'

Zhang Zhenyang← Darlan

90+3'

Liao Chengjian← Zheng Kaimu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

YunnanWuhan

Overview

50%Possession50%

21Total Shots5

2.76Expected Goals (xG)0.69

7Corners2

11Fouls16

Shots

21Total Shots5

8On Target1

11Off Target4

2Blocked0

13Inside Box3

8Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

337Total Passes338

274Accurate Passes267

81%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1