Wuhan Three Towns 1–1 Yunnan Yukun: Result & Stats

Wuhan Three Towns

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Yunnan Yukun

J. Cadiz 57'

Huang Zichang 74'

5/31/2026

Super League · Round 15Wuhan Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns59%

×Draw21%

Yunnan Yukun21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuhan Three TownsExpected goals in this matchYunnan Yukun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.15

Wuhan Three Towns

2.08

Yunnan Yukun

1.15

Wuhan Three Towns creates 81% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

1.84

creates per match

1.09

1.20

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns

1.84

Yunnan Yukun

1.09

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns

1.20

Yunnan Yukun

2.33

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns-0.34scores less

Yunnan Yukun+0.44scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns ↓

Yunnan Yukun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns or draw

79%

Wuhan Three Towns or Yunnan Yukun

79%

Draw or Yunnan Yukun

41%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

36%

Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

87%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

61%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

34%

Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals

68%

Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals

32%

Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

74%

Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.20 · 16 matches

Yunnan Yukun away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.33 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.84 + Yunnan Yukun defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.08

Yunnan Yukun attack 1.09 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

59%

level

21%

Yunnan Yukun scores more

21%

Wuhan Three Towns at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Gustavo Sauer

Wuhan Three Towns · F

8.2

Match Events

22'

29'

35'

37'

39'

46'

57'

Chen Zhechao← Wang Kang

57'

J. Cadiz↳ Gustavo Sauer

59'

Yang Zihao← Zhang Yufeng

63'

Tang Miao← Zhang Chenliang

64'

Han Zilong← Cleber

71'

Zhong Jinbao← Zheng Haoqian

71'

Long Wei← J. Xiong

74'

Huang Zichang↳ Han Zilong

86'

Zhechao Chen

88'

Jinbao Zhong

89'

L. Jiang← Liao Chengjian

89'

Yi Teng← Huang Zichang

89'

Fei Ernanduo← A. Ionita II

90+8'

Kaimu Zheng

90+7'

Zilong Han

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WuhanYunnan

Overview

54%Possession46%

12Total Shots7

7Corners3

16Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots7

4On Target2

6Off Target4

2Blocked1

8Inside Box6

4Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

354Total Passes302

285Accurate Passes241

81%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls15

5Yellow Cards4

5Offsides1