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Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Shenhua — Super League 2026

Yunnan Yukun
Yunnan Yukun
FT
4 – 4
HT: 3 – 1
Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
8/2/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 19Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Yunnan Yukun36%
×Draw24%
Shanghai Shenhua39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yunnan Yukun
1.49
Shanghai Shenhua
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

creates per match

Yunnan Yukun
1.66
Shanghai Shenhua
1.92

allows per match

Yunnan Yukun
1.21
Shanghai Shenhua
1.32

finishing

Yunnan Yukun+0.20scores more
Shanghai Shenhua-0.01on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yunnan Yukun ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Yunnan Yukun or draw
61%
Yunnan Yukun or Shanghai Shenhua
76%
Draw or Shanghai Shenhua
64%

Winning margin

Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+
17%
Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals
77%
Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals
44%
Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals
19%
Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
79%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
46%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)
48%
Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yunnan Yukun at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.32 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yunnan Yukun attack 1.66 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.49

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.92 + Yunnan Yukun defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Yunnan Yukun scores more
36%
level
24%
Shanghai Shenhua scores more
39%

Shanghai Shenhua at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Shenhua

Yunnan Yukun and Shanghai Shenhua drew 4-4 in Super League on August 2, 2025.

The match was played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium in Yuxi.