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Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun — Super League 2026

Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Yunnan Yukun
Yunnan Yukun
Saulo Mineiro 90', 85'
Nene 63' (OG)
Ye Chugui 23'
4/2/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 4Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua75%
×Draw15%
Yunnan Yukun10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenhua
2.73
Yunnan Yukun
0.89

Shanghai Shenhua creates 207% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua
2.59
Yunnan Yukun
0.85

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua
0.92
Yunnan Yukun
2.88

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua-0.03on par
Yunnan Yukun+0.15scores more

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Yunnan Yukun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw
90%
Shanghai Shenhua or Yunnan Yukun
85%
Draw or Yunnan Yukun
25%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
54%
Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
93%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
75%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
50%
Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals
59%
Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals
22%
Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
88%
Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 2.59, concedes 0.92 · 16 matches

Yunnan Yukun away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 2.59 + Yunnan Yukun defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.73

Yunnan Yukun attack 0.85 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more
75%
level
15%
Yunnan Yukun scores more
10%

Shanghai Shenhua at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
Saulo MineiroShanghai ShenhuaShanghai Shenhua · F
9.2

Match Events

23'
Ye Chugui↳ H. Pedro
25'
Dilmurat Mawlanyaz
45+2'
Teng Yi
56'
João Carlos Teixeira
58'
Xu Haoyang← Yang Zexiang
63'
NeneOwn goal
72'
Yang Haoyu← Gao Tianyi
78'
J. Martinez← Han Zilong
78'
Zhang Yufeng← Ye Chugui
79'
Teng Yi
79'
Teng Yi
83'
Zhang Chenliang← A. Ionita II
85'
Saulo Mineiro↳ Wu Xi
88'
Xie Pengfei← Andre Luis
90+2'
Saulo Mineiro
90+3'
B. Li← H. Pedro
90'
Saulo Mineiro

Possession

70%Shanghai

Shots

36Shanghai

Pass accuracy

57%Shanghai

Statistics

ShanghaiYunnan
Overview
70%Possession30%
36Total Shots9
5.22Expected Goals (xG)0.69
16Corners1
13Fouls11
Shots
36Total Shots9
8On Target3
15Off Target5
13Blocked1
26Inside Box5
10Outside Box4
Passing
70%Possession30%
555Total Passes237
470Accurate Passes149
85%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
13Fouls11
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun

Shanghai Shenhua beat Yunnan Yukun 3-1 in Super League on April 2, 2025.

Goals: Ye Chugui (23'), Nene (63' o.g.), Saulo Mineiro (85', 90').

Shanghai Shenhua controlled possession (70%) and registered 36 shots to 9.

The match was played at Shanghai Stadium in Shanghai.