Yunnan Yukun 4–0 Quanzhou Yassin: Result & Stats

Yunnan Yukun

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Quanzhou Yassin

Che Shiwei 84'

Zhong Haoran 74' (pen)

Anfal Yaremati 44'

Han Zilong 19'

5/13/2023

League Two · Round 3Yuxi plateau Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Yunnan Yukun69%

×Draw20%

Quanzhou Yassin10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yunnan YukunExpected goals in this matchQuanzhou Yassin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.56

Yunnan Yukun

1.90

Quanzhou Yassin

0.56

Yunnan Yukun creates 239% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 47 away

2.00

creates per match

0.77

0.36

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Yunnan Yukun

2.00

Quanzhou Yassin

0.77

allows per match

Yunnan Yukun

0.36

Quanzhou Yassin

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yunnan Yukun+0.00on par

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yunnan Yukun ↓

Quanzhou Yassin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–19%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Yunnan Yukun or draw

90%

Yunnan Yukun or Quanzhou Yassin

80%

Draw or Quanzhou Yassin

31%

Winning margin

Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+

43%

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals

85%

Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals

56%

Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals

29%

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals

43%

Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals

11%

Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)

87%

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yunnan Yukun at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.36 · 11 matches

Quanzhou Yassin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yunnan Yukun attack 2.00 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.90

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.77 + Yunnan Yukun defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Yunnan Yukun scores more

69%

level

20%

Quanzhou Yassin scores more

10%

Yunnan Yukun at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Yunnan Yukun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Han Zilong↳ Li Shuai

44'

Anfal Yaremati

46'

Lan Jingxuan← Zhang Yulong

46'

Hu Ziqian← Lin Shengbo

64'

Che Shiwei← Liu Yi I

64'

Zhong Haoran← Li Shuai

67'

Liao Jiajun← Anfal Yaremati

68'

Liu Yuhao← Shi Zhe

73'

Wang Junming← Cao Haiqing

74'

Zhong HaoranPenalty

84'

Che Shiwei↳ Liu Yuhao

Yunnan

Quanzhou

1

Yuqin

24

▼

Shengbo

4

Donghao

10

Diantong

14

▼

42

5

6

7

8

17

1

5

6

▼

Haiqing

15

▼

Zhe

29

Wenqing

32

Guangwen

33

A

▼

Shuai

21

Biao

30

▼

I

27

⚽

Zilong

42

⚽

▼

Yaremati

Manager: Niu Hongli

64'▲Che Shiwei←▼Liu Yi I

64'▲Zhong Haoran←▼Li Shuai

67'▲Liao Jiajun←▼Anfal Yaremati

68'▲Liu Yuhao←▼Shi Zhe

73'▲Wang Junming←▼Cao Haiqing

Yunnan Yukun substitutes

17Shiwei8Haoran47Jiajun14Yuhao11Junming3II7Yao19Xiaoming26Jing60Shengjun9Changjie18Xiao

Manager: Huang Yong

46'▲Lan Jingxuan←▼Zhang Yulong

46'▲Hu Ziqian←▼Lin Shengbo

Quanzhou Yassin substitutes

19Jingxuan21Ziqian47Hongyu56Chen9Yao28Jincai60Mingrui27Yalun20Mingyi43Tianci

League Two: Yunnan Yukun 4–0 Quanzhou Yassin

Yunnan Yukun beat Quanzhou Yassin 4-0 in League Two on May 13, 2023.

Goals: Han Zilong (19'), Anfal Yaremati (44'), Zhong Haoran (74' pen), Che Shiwei (84').

The match was played at Yuxi plateau Sports Center Stadium in Yuxi.

Yunnan Yukun vs Quanzhou Yassin — League Two 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Two: Yunnan Yukun 4–0 Quanzhou Yassin