Quanzhou Yassin 1–0 Yunnan Yukun: Result & Stats

Quanzhou Yassin

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Yunnan Yukun

7/9/2023

League Two · Round 10Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Quanzhou Yassin21%

×Draw23%

Yunnan Yukun56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quanzhou YassinExpected goals in this matchYunnan Yukun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.82

Quanzhou Yassin

1.03

Yunnan Yukun

1.82

Yunnan Yukun creates 77% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 11 away

0.88

creates per match

2.27

1.38

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Quanzhou Yassin

0.88

Yunnan Yukun

2.27

allows per match

Quanzhou Yassin

1.38

Yunnan Yukun

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Yunnan Yukun+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quanzhou Yassin ↓

Yunnan Yukun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Quanzhou Yassin or draw

44%

Quanzhou Yassin or Yunnan Yukun

77%

Draw or Yunnan Yukun

79%

Winning margin

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+

8%

Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals

64%

Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals

28%

Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals

9%

Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals

84%

Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals

54%

Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)

28%

Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quanzhou Yassin at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

Yunnan Yukun away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.88 + Yunnan Yukun defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Yunnan Yukun attack 2.27 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Quanzhou Yassin scores more

21%

level

23%

Yunnan Yukun scores more

56%

Yunnan Yukun at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Yunnan Yukun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff