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Yunnan Yukun vs Hunan Billows FC — League Two 2022

Yunnan Yukun
Yunnan Yukun
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
4/30/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 1Yuxi plateau Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Yunnan Yukun68%
×Draw20%
Hunan Billows FC11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yunnan Yukun
1.96
Hunan Billows FC
0.65

Yunnan Yukun creates 202% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 33 away

creates per match

Yunnan Yukun
2.00
Hunan Billows FC
0.94

allows per match

Yunnan Yukun
0.36
Hunan Billows FC
1.91

finishing

Yunnan Yukun+0.00on par
Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yunnan Yukun ↓

Hunan Billows FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Yunnan Yukun or draw
89%
Yunnan Yukun or Hunan Billows FC
80%
Draw or Hunan Billows FC
32%

Winning margin

Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+
42%
Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals
86%
Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals
58%
Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals
31%
Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
48%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
14%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)
86%
Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yunnan Yukun at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.36 · 11 matches

Hunan Billows FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yunnan Yukun attack 2.00 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.96

Hunan Billows FC attack 0.94 + Yunnan Yukun defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Yunnan Yukun scores more
68%
level
20%
Hunan Billows FC scores more
11%

Yunnan Yukun at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Yunnan Yukun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Yunnan Yukun 2–0 Hunan Billows FC

Yunnan Yukun beat Hunan Billows FC 2-0 in League Two on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Yuxi plateau Sports Center Stadium in Yuxi.