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Hunan Billows FC vs Yunnan Yukun — League Two 2022

Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
FT
2 – 5
HT: 2 – 4
Yunnan Yukun
Yunnan Yukun
6/27/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 8Loudi Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hunan Billows FC21%
×Draw21%
Yunnan Yukun58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hunan Billows FC
1.20
Yunnan Yukun
2.09

Yunnan Yukun creates 74% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 11 away

creates per match

Hunan Billows FC
1.22
Yunnan Yukun
2.27

allows per match

Hunan Billows FC
1.91
Yunnan Yukun
1.18

finishing

Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par
Yunnan Yukun+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hunan Billows FC ↓

Yunnan Yukun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hunan Billows FC or draw
42%
Hunan Billows FC or Yunnan Yukun
79%
Draw or Yunnan Yukun
79%

Winning margin

Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
8%
Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
70%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
34%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
12%
Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals
88%
Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals
62%
Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
27%
Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hunan Billows FC at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

Yunnan Yukun away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hunan Billows FC attack 1.22 + Yunnan Yukun defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.20

Yunnan Yukun attack 2.27 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hunan Billows FC scores more
21%
level
21%
Yunnan Yukun scores more
58%

Yunnan Yukun at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Yunnan Yukun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hunan Billows FC vs Yunnan Yukun

Yunnan Yukun beat Hunan Billows FC 5-2 in League Two on June 27, 2023.

The match was played at Loudi Sports Center in Loudi.