Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Yunnan Yukun vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring — League One 2026

Yunnan Yukun
Yunnan Yukun
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
3/23/2024League OneLeague One · Round 3Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yunnan Yukun68%
×Draw20%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yunnan Yukun
2.05
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
0.73

Yunnan Yukun creates 181% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 118 away

creates per match

Yunnan Yukun
2.67
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.13

allows per match

Yunnan Yukun
0.33
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.44

finishing

Yunnan Yukun+0.00on par
Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yunnan Yukun ↓

Heilongjiang Lava Spring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Yunnan Yukun or draw
88%
Yunnan Yukun or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
80%
Draw or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
32%

Winning margin

Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+
43%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals
87%
Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals
61%
Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals
33%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals
52%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals
17%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)
85%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yunnan Yukun at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 15 matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.44 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yunnan Yukun attack 2.67 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 2.05

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.13 + Yunnan Yukun defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Yunnan Yukun scores more
68%
level
20%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more
12%

Yunnan Yukun at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Yunnan Yukun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yunnan Yukun vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Yunnan Yukun beat Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3-0 in League One on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium in Yuxi.