Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1–2 Yunnan Yukun

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Yunnan Yukun

Erikys 60'

Pedro Henrique 90'

Han Zilong 88'

5/21/2025

FA Cup · 3rd RoundDingnan Football Youth Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring34%

×Draw23%

Yunnan Yukun43%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heilongjiang Lava SpringExpected goals in this matchYunnan Yukun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.72

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

1.52

Yunnan Yukun

1.72

Yunnan Yukun creates 13% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.20

creates per match

1.83

1.60

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

1.20

Yunnan Yukun

1.83

allows per match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

1.60

Yunnan Yukun

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par

Yunnan Yukun+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heilongjiang Lava Spring ↓

Yunnan Yukun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Heilongjiang Lava Spring or draw

57%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring or Yunnan Yukun

77%

Draw or Yunnan Yukun

66%

Winning margin

Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+

16%

Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals

78%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals

45%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals

20%

Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals

82%

Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals

51%

Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)

45%

Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Yunnan Yukun away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.20 + Yunnan Yukun defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.52

Yunnan Yukun attack 1.83 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more

34%

level

23%

Yunnan Yukun scores more

43%

Yunnan Yukun at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Yunnan Yukun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

Erikys

88'

Han Zilong

90'

Pedro Henrique

Heilongjiang

Yunnan

24

3

8

5

26

10

7

30

20

19

9

⚽

27

44

16

33

29

18

6

8

9

7

22

Manager: Jianye Liu

Heilongjiang Lava Spring substitutes

11Erikys15Fan25Boyang14Wei20Fernandes3Tianlong10Shi23Tianlong26Liming28Shuai30Zening34Ependi

Manager: Jørn Andersen

Yunnan Yukun substitutes

29He25Maritu27Zilong1Zhen13Shengjun16Xiangshuo17Xuelong18Teng21Biao23Congyao31Xiaofeng