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Yunnan Yukun vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — League One 2018

Yunnan Yukun
Yunnan Yukun
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
8/17/2024League OneLeague One · Round 19Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yunnan Yukun63%
×Draw20%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yunnan Yukun
2.07
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
0.95

Yunnan Yukun creates 118% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Yunnan Yukun
2.67
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.57

allows per match

Yunnan Yukun
0.33
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.47

finishing

Yunnan Yukun+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yunnan Yukun ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Yunnan Yukun or draw
83%
Yunnan Yukun or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
80%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
37%

Winning margin

Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+
39%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals
87%
Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals
61%
Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals
34%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
61%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
25%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)
79%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yunnan Yukun at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 15 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yunnan Yukun attack 2.67 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.07

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.57 + Yunnan Yukun defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Yunnan Yukun scores more
63%
level
20%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
17%

Yunnan Yukun at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Yunnan Yukun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yunnan Yukun vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Yunnan Yukun and Guangzhou Evergrande FC drew 1-1 in League One on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium in Yuxi.