Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Yunnan Yukun — League One 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Guangzhou Evergrande FC26%
Yunnan Yukun48%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Yunnan Yukun creates 44% more chances
Season form · 30 home / 15 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches
Yunnan Yukun away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.17 + Yunnan Yukun defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08
Yunnan Yukun attack 2.00 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.56
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Yunnan Yukun at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Yunnan Yukun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Wuhan Zall
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Hangzhou Greentown
Qingdao Huanghai
Beijing Baxy
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Liaoning Hongyun FC
Meizhou Kejia
Yanbian Tigers FC
Shanghai Shenxin
Zhejiang Yiteng
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
Meizhou Meixian Techand
Dalian Transcendence
Xinjiang TianshanIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Guangzhou Evergrande FC host Yunnan Yukun on Saturday, 30 March 2024 at 11:30. The match is part of the League One 2018/2019 season.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0 – 5 Yunnan Yukun
Yunnan Yukun beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 5-0 in League One on March 30, 2024.
The match was played at Huadu Stadium in Guangzhou.