Yunnan Yukun 1–1 Guangxi Lanhang: Result & Stats

Yunnan Yukun

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Guangxi Lanhang

7/23/2023

League Two · Round 12Yuxi plateau Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Yunnan Yukun65%

×Draw23%

Guangxi Lanhang13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yunnan YukunExpected goals in this matchGuangxi Lanhang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.62

Yunnan Yukun

1.75

Guangxi Lanhang

0.62

Yunnan Yukun creates 182% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 40 away

2.00

creates per match

0.88

0.36

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Yunnan Yukun

2.00

Guangxi Lanhang

0.88

allows per match

Yunnan Yukun

0.36

Guangxi Lanhang

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yunnan Yukun+0.00on par

Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yunnan Yukun ↓

Guangxi Lanhang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Yunnan Yukun or draw

87%

Yunnan Yukun or Guangxi Lanhang

77%

Draw or Guangxi Lanhang

35%

Winning margin

Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+

38%

Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals

83%

Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals

52%

Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals

25%

Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals

46%

Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals

13%

Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)

84%

Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yunnan Yukun at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.36 · 11 matches

Guangxi Lanhang away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yunnan Yukun attack 2.00 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.88 + Yunnan Yukun defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Yunnan Yukun scores more

65%

level

23%

Guangxi Lanhang scores more

13%

Yunnan Yukun at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Yunnan Yukun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff