Guangxi Lanhang 2–1 Yunnan Yukun: Result & Stats

Guangxi Lanhang

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Yunnan Yukun

6/5/2023

League Two · Round 5Liuzhou Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Guangxi Lanhang18%

×Draw21%

Yunnan Yukun60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangxi LanhangExpected goals in this matchYunnan Yukun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.98

Guangxi Lanhang

0.99

Yunnan Yukun

1.98

Yunnan Yukun creates 100% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 11 away

0.80

creates per match

2.27

1.70

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Guangxi Lanhang

0.80

Yunnan Yukun

2.27

allows per match

Guangxi Lanhang

1.70

Yunnan Yukun

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par

Yunnan Yukun+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Lanhang ↓

Yunnan Yukun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Guangxi Lanhang or draw

40%

Guangxi Lanhang or Yunnan Yukun

79%

Draw or Yunnan Yukun

82%

Winning margin

Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+

6%

Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals

63%

Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals

26%

Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals

8%

Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals

86%

Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals

59%

Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)

23%

Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Lanhang at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

Yunnan Yukun away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.80 + Yunnan Yukun defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.99

Yunnan Yukun attack 2.27 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Guangxi Lanhang scores more

18%

level

21%

Yunnan Yukun scores more

60%

Yunnan Yukun at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Yunnan Yukun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff