Yunnan Yukun vs Dongguan United — League One 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Yunnan Yukun73%
Dongguan United9%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Yunnan Yukun creates 262% more chances
Season form · 15 home / 52 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Yunnan Yukun ↓
Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Yunnan Yukun at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 15 matches
Dongguan United away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.67 · 52 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Yunnan Yukun attack 2.67 + Dongguan United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.17
Dongguan United attack 0.87 + Yunnan Yukun defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.60
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 73%?"
Yunnan Yukun at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 73% does not mean "Yunnan Yukun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Wuhan Zall
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Hangzhou Greentown
Qingdao Huanghai
Beijing Baxy
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Liaoning Hongyun FC
Meizhou Kejia
Yanbian Tigers FC
Shanghai Shenxin
Zhejiang Yiteng
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
Meizhou Meixian Techand
Dalian Transcendence
Xinjiang TianshanIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Yunnan Yukun host Dongguan United on Saturday, 6 July 2024 at 11:30. The match is part of the League One 2026/2027 season.
League One: Yunnan Yukun 2–0 Dongguan United
Yunnan Yukun beat Dongguan United 2-0 in League One on July 6, 2024.
The match was played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium in Yuxi.