Dongguan United 0–0 Yunnan Yukun: Result & Stats

Dongguan United

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Yunnan Yukun

3/9/2024

League One · Round 1Nanhai Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dongguan United25%

×Draw25%

Yunnan Yukun51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dongguan UnitedExpected goals in this matchYunnan Yukun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.63

Dongguan United

1.06

Yunnan Yukun

1.63

Yunnan Yukun creates 54% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 15 away

1.11

creates per match

2.00

1.25

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Dongguan United

1.11

Yunnan Yukun

2.00

allows per match

Dongguan United

1.25

Yunnan Yukun

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dongguan United+0.00on par

Yunnan Yukun+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dongguan United ↓

Yunnan Yukun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Dongguan United or draw

49%

Dongguan United or Yunnan Yukun

75%

Draw or Yunnan Yukun

75%

Winning margin

Dongguan United wins by 2+

9%

Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Dongguan United 1+ goals

65%

Dongguan United 2+ goals

29%

Dongguan United 3+ goals

9%

Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals

80%

Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals

48%

Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Dongguan United (draw refunded)

33%

Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dongguan United at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

Yunnan Yukun away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dongguan United attack 1.11 + Yunnan Yukun defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Yunnan Yukun attack 2.00 + Dongguan United defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dongguan United scores more

25%

level

25%

Yunnan Yukun scores more

51%

Yunnan Yukun at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Yunnan Yukun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff