Yunnan Yukun 3–3 Beijing Guoan: Result & Stats

Yunnan Yukun

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Beijing Guoan

O. Taty Maritu 90'

Cleber 77'

A. Ionita II 45'

Serginho 81'

Zhang Xizhe 60' (pen)

Zhang Yuning 22'

5/2/2026

Super League · Round 9Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Yunnan Yukun43%

×Draw24%

Beijing Guoan33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yunnan YukunExpected goals in this matchBeijing Guoan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.39

Yunnan Yukun

1.61

Beijing Guoan

1.39

Yunnan Yukun creates 16% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 32 away

1.74

creates per match

1.56

1.22

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Yunnan Yukun

1.74

Beijing Guoan

1.56

allows per match

Yunnan Yukun

1.22

Beijing Guoan

1.48

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

Yunnan Yukun+0.12scores more

Beijing Guoan+0.35scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yunnan Yukun ↓

Beijing Guoan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Yunnan Yukun or draw

67%

Yunnan Yukun or Beijing Guoan

76%

Draw or Beijing Guoan

57%

Winning margin

Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+

22%

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals

80%

Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals

48%

Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals

22%

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

75%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

40%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)

56%

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yunnan Yukun at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.22 · 21 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yunnan Yukun attack 1.74 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.61

Beijing Guoan attack 1.56 + Yunnan Yukun defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Yunnan Yukun scores more

43%

level

24%

Beijing Guoan scores more

33%

Yunnan Yukun at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Yunnan Yukun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Zhang Xizhe

Beijing Guoan · M

8.3

Match Events

22'

Zhang Yuning↳ Zhang Xizhe

23'

Zhang XizheGoal confirmed

45'

A. Ionita II

58'

Zhang XizhePenalty confirmed

60'

J. Saeter← Ye Chugui

60'

Zhang Chenliang← Tang Miao

60'

Huang Zichang← Xu Xin

60'

Yue Tze-Nam← Wang Gang

60'

Zhang XizhePenalty

73'

Feng Boxuan← Zhang Xizhe

74'

Fei Ernanduo← Zhao Yuhao

74'

B. Abdusalam← Yang Zihao

77'

Cleber↳ J. Saeter

81'

Serginho↳ Feng Boxuan

83'

J. Deng← Serginho

90'

O. Taty Maritu↳ Huang Zichang

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

YunnanBeijing

Overview

48%Possession52%

12Total Shots11

1.45Expected Goals (xG)2.32

5Corners8

9Fouls7

Shots

12Total Shots11

5On Target6

4Off Target3

3Blocked2

6Inside Box9

6Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

392Total Passes435

326Accurate Passes362

83%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls7

1Offsides2