Yunnan Yukun 0–2 Beijing Guoan: Result & Stats

Yunnan Yukun

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Beijing Guoan

Cao Yongjing 79'

F. Abreu 53'

2/22/2025

Super League · Round 1Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Yunnan Yukun43%

×Draw24%

Beijing Guoan33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yunnan YukunExpected goals in this matchBeijing Guoan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.39

Yunnan Yukun

1.61

Beijing Guoan

1.39

Yunnan Yukun creates 16% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 32 away

1.74

creates per match

1.56

1.22

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Yunnan Yukun

1.74

Beijing Guoan

1.56

allows per match

Yunnan Yukun

1.22

Beijing Guoan

1.48

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

Yunnan Yukun+0.12scores more

Beijing Guoan+0.35scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yunnan Yukun ↓

Beijing Guoan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Yunnan Yukun or draw

67%

Yunnan Yukun or Beijing Guoan

76%

Draw or Beijing Guoan

57%

Winning margin

Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+

22%

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals

80%

Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals

48%

Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals

22%

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

75%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

40%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)

56%

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yunnan Yukun at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.22 · 21 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yunnan Yukun attack 1.74 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.61

Beijing Guoan attack 1.56 + Yunnan Yukun defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Yunnan Yukun scores more

43%

level

24%

Beijing Guoan scores more

33%

Yunnan Yukun at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Yunnan Yukun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

M. Ngadeu

Beijing Guoan · D

7.9

Match Events

53'

F. Abreu↳ N. Muhmet

61'

H. Pedro← Han Zilong

61'

Zhang Yufeng← J. Martinez

66'

70'

78'

79'

83'

Yang He← Luo Jing

83'

Sun Xuelong← Nene

83'

Zhang Yuan← Dawhan

86'

Zhang Yuning← F. Abreu

86'

Li Lei← Lin Liangming

90+8'

90+8'

90+10'

90'

90+10'

90+5'

Yin Congyao← A. Ionita II

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

YunnanBeijing

Overview

32%Possession68%

8Total Shots9

1.41Expected Goals (xG)0.88

0Corners7

14Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots9

1On Target5

6Off Target2

1Blocked2

5Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

32%Possession68%

239Total Passes536

162Accurate Passes458

68%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards1

2Offsides1