Ypiranga-RS 2–0 Atlético Acreano: Result & Stats

Ypiranga-RS

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Acreano

Wagner 66'

Marcinho 53'

7/6/2019

Serie C · Round 11Estádio Olímpico Colosso da Lagoa (Erechim, Rio Grande do Sul)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ypiranga-RS64%

×Draw22%

Atlético Acreano14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ypiranga-RSExpected goals in this matchAtlético Acreano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.70

Ypiranga-RS

1.81

Atlético Acreano

0.70

Ypiranga-RS creates 159% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 17 away

1.51

creates per match

0.53

0.86

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Ypiranga-RS

1.51

Atlético Acreano

0.53

allows per match

Ypiranga-RS

0.86

Atlético Acreano

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ypiranga-RS+0.00on par

Atlético Acreano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ypiranga-RS ↓

Atlético Acreano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ypiranga-RS or draw

86%

Ypiranga-RS or Atlético Acreano

78%

Draw or Atlético Acreano

36%

Winning margin

Ypiranga-RS wins by 2+

38%

Atlético Acreano wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ypiranga-RS 1+ goals

84%

Ypiranga-RS 2+ goals

54%

Ypiranga-RS 3+ goals

27%

Atlético Acreano 1+ goals

50%

Atlético Acreano 2+ goals

16%

Atlético Acreano 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ypiranga-RS (draw refunded)

82%

Atlético Acreano (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ypiranga-RS at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.86 · 92 matches

Atlético Acreano away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ypiranga-RS attack 1.51 + Atlético Acreano defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.81

Atlético Acreano attack 0.53 + Ypiranga-RS defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Ypiranga-RS scores more

64%

level

22%

Atlético Acreano scores more

14%

Ypiranga-RS at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ypiranga-RS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

Marcinho

58'

Diogo← Bruno

62'

Quirino← Joãozinho

66'

Wagner

69'

Ismael← Vinicius Baiano

73'

Paulinho Simionato← Jackson

80'

Tragodara← Kássio

81'

Saimon← Wesley

Ypiranga-RS

Atlético

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Fabiano Daitx

62'▲Quirino←▼Joãozinho

73'▲Paulinho Simionato←▼Jackson

81'▲Saimon←▼Wesley

Ypiranga-RS substitutes

QuirinoSimionatoSaimonCarlãoCaféDouglãoFaíscaPaulinoGuttiJoãozinhoPiresRoger

Manager: Alvaro

58'▲Diogo←▼Bruno

69'▲Ismael←▼Vinicius Baiano

80'▲Tragodara←▼Kássio

Atlético Acreano substitutes

DiogoIsmaelTragodaraSebastiãoDouglasCarlosGeovaniJôMendesMarcilioViniciusOcimar