Atlético Acreano 1–1 Ypiranga-RS: Result & Stats

Atlético Acreano

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ypiranga-RS

Marquinhos 5'

Joãozinho 45+3'

5/5/2019

Serie C · Round 2Estádio Antônio Aquino Lopes (Rio Branco, Acre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atlético Acreano45%

×Draw27%

Ypiranga-RS28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético AcreanoExpected goals in this matchYpiranga-RS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.06

Atlético Acreano

1.43

Ypiranga-RS

1.06

Atlético Acreano creates 35% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 92 away

1.47

creates per match

1.00

1.11

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Atlético Acreano

1.47

Ypiranga-RS

1.00

allows per match

Atlético Acreano

1.11

Ypiranga-RS

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Acreano+0.00on par

Ypiranga-RS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Acreano ↓

Ypiranga-RS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Acreano or draw

72%

Atlético Acreano or Ypiranga-RS

73%

Draw or Ypiranga-RS

55%

Winning margin

Atlético Acreano wins by 2+

22%

Ypiranga-RS wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Atlético Acreano 1+ goals

76%

Atlético Acreano 2+ goals

42%

Atlético Acreano 3+ goals

17%

Ypiranga-RS 1+ goals

65%

Ypiranga-RS 2+ goals

29%

Ypiranga-RS 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Atlético Acreano (draw refunded)

62%

Ypiranga-RS (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Acreano at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Ypiranga-RS away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.39 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Acreano attack 1.47 + Ypiranga-RS defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.43

Ypiranga-RS attack 1.00 + Atlético Acreano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atlético Acreano scores more

45%

level

27%

Ypiranga-RS scores more

28%

Atlético Acreano at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atlético Acreano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Marquinhos

45+3'

Joãozinho

56'

Luiz Miller← Stenio

57'

Joel← Marquinhos

59'

Café← Joãozinho

64'

Ronaldinho Gramadense← Pedro Pires

73'

Bruno← Doka Madureira

73'

Marcinho← Flávio Paulino

Atlético

Ypiranga-RS

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Alvaro

56'▲Luiz Miller←▼Stenio

57'▲Joel←▼Marquinhos

73'▲Bruno←▼Doka Madureira

Atlético Acreano substitutes

MillerJoelBrunoDouglasJordãoFelipeIsmaelLucasMatheusTragodaraGeovaniDouglas

Manager: Fabiano Daitx

59'▲Café←▼Joãozinho

64'▲Ronaldinho Gramadense←▼Pedro Pires

73'▲Marcinho←▼Flávio Paulino

Ypiranga-RS substitutes

CaféGramadenseMarcinhoDeivityFábioPedrozoJacksonJoãozinhoMarcãoAntônioQuirinoWesley