Ypiranga BA U20 0–1 Estrela De Marco U20

Ypiranga BA U20

FT

0 – 1

Estrela De Marco U20

6/28/2025

Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 14Estádio Deputado Galdino Leite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ypiranga BA U2029%

×Draw32%

Estrela De Marco U2039%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ypiranga BA U20Expected goals in this matchEstrela De Marco U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

1.04

Ypiranga BA U20

0.84

Estrela De Marco U20

1.04

Estrela De Marco U20 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 25 away

0.69

creates per match

1.20

0.88

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Ypiranga BA U20

0.69

Estrela De Marco U20

1.20

allows per match

Ypiranga BA U20

0.88

Estrela De Marco U20

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ypiranga BA U20+0.00on par

Estrela De Marco U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ypiranga BA U20 ↓

Estrela De Marco U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Ypiranga BA U20 or draw

61%

Ypiranga BA U20 or Estrela De Marco U20

68%

Draw or Estrela De Marco U20

71%

Winning margin

Ypiranga BA U20 wins by 2+

9%

Estrela De Marco U20 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ypiranga BA U20 1+ goals

57%

Ypiranga BA U20 2+ goals

21%

Ypiranga BA U20 3+ goals

5%

Estrela De Marco U20 1+ goals

65%

Estrela De Marco U20 2+ goals

28%

Estrela De Marco U20 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ypiranga BA U20 (draw refunded)

42%

Estrela De Marco U20 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ypiranga BA U20 at home — creates 0.69, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Estrela De Marco U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ypiranga BA U20 attack 0.69 + Estrela De Marco U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.84

Estrela De Marco U20 attack 1.20 + Ypiranga BA U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ypiranga BA U20 scores more

29%

level

32%

Estrela De Marco U20 scores more

39%

Estrela De Marco U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Estrela De Marco U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff