Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Estrela De Marco U20 vs Ypiranga BA U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Estrela De Marco U20
Estrela De Marco U20
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ypiranga BA U20
Ypiranga BA U20
3/29/2025Baiano U20Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Deputado Galdino Leite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Estrela De Marco U2062%
×Draw23%
Ypiranga BA U2015%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrela De Marco U20
1.79
Ypiranga BA U20
0.74

Estrela De Marco U20 creates 142% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 14 away

creates per match

Estrela De Marco U20
1.88
Ypiranga BA U20
0.86

allows per match

Estrela De Marco U20
0.63
Ypiranga BA U20
1.71

finishing

Estrela De Marco U20+0.00on par
Ypiranga BA U20+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrela De Marco U20 ↓

Ypiranga BA U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Estrela De Marco U20 or draw
85%
Estrela De Marco U20 or Ypiranga BA U20
77%
Draw or Ypiranga BA U20
38%

Winning margin

Estrela De Marco U20 wins by 2+
36%
Ypiranga BA U20 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Estrela De Marco U20 1+ goals
83%
Estrela De Marco U20 2+ goals
53%
Estrela De Marco U20 3+ goals
26%
Ypiranga BA U20 1+ goals
52%
Ypiranga BA U20 2+ goals
17%
Ypiranga BA U20 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Estrela De Marco U20 (draw refunded)
81%
Ypiranga BA U20 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrela De Marco U20 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.63 · 24 matches

Ypiranga BA U20 away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrela De Marco U20 attack 1.88 + Ypiranga BA U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.79

Ypiranga BA U20 attack 0.86 + Estrela De Marco U20 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Estrela De Marco U20 scores more
62%
level
23%
Ypiranga BA U20 scores more
15%

Estrela De Marco U20 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Estrela De Marco U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano U20: Estrela De Marco U20 4–1 Ypiranga BA U20

Estrela De Marco U20 beat Ypiranga BA U20 4-1 in Baiano U20 on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Deputado Galdino Leite in Salvador, Bahia.