Ypiranga BA U20 vs Bahia de Feira U20 — Baiano U20 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 13+ matches
Ypiranga BA U2033%
Bahia de Feira U2038%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 16 home / 13 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ypiranga BA U20 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ypiranga BA U20 at home — creates 0.69, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches
Bahia de Feira U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ypiranga BA U20 attack 0.69 + Bahia de Feira U20 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.07
Bahia de Feira U20 attack 1.46 + Ypiranga BA U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.17
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Bahia de Feira U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Bahia de Feira U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Camaçariense U20
Bahia U20
Vitória U20
Jacuipense U20
Porto BA U20
Barcelona BA U20
SSA U20
Galícia U20
Conquista U20
Redencao U20
Fluminense de Feira U20
Jacobina U20
Atlético Alagoinhas U20
Catuense U20
Serrano U20
Estrela De Marco U20Bahia de Feira U20
Vitória da Conquista U20
Jequie U20
Grapiuna U20
Feirense U20
Juazeirense U20
Leonico U20
Camacari U20If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ypiranga BA U20 host Bahia de Feira U20 on Wednesday, 8 May 2024 at 18:00. The match is part of the Baiano U20 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Ypiranga BA U20 vs Bahia de Feira U20
Bahia de Feira U20 beat Ypiranga BA U20 2-1 in Baiano U20 on May 8, 2024.
The match was played at Estádio Deputado Galdino Leite in Salvador, Bahia.