Bahia de Feira U20 2–2 Ypiranga BA U20

Bahia de Feira U20

FT

2 – 2

Ypiranga BA U20

3/23/2024

Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Jodilton Souza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bahia de Feira U2044%

×Draw25%

Ypiranga BA U2032%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bahia de Feira U20Expected goals in this matchYpiranga BA U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.31

Bahia de Feira U20

1.58

Ypiranga BA U20

1.31

Bahia de Feira U20 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

1.46

creates per match

0.86

1.77

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Bahia de Feira U20

1.46

Ypiranga BA U20

0.86

allows per match

Bahia de Feira U20

1.77

Ypiranga BA U20

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bahia de Feira U20+0.00on par

Ypiranga BA U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia de Feira U20 ↓

Ypiranga BA U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Bahia de Feira U20 or draw

68%

Bahia de Feira U20 or Ypiranga BA U20

75%

Draw or Ypiranga BA U20

56%

Winning margin

Bahia de Feira U20 wins by 2+

22%

Ypiranga BA U20 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bahia de Feira U20 1+ goals

79%

Bahia de Feira U20 2+ goals

47%

Bahia de Feira U20 3+ goals

21%

Ypiranga BA U20 1+ goals

73%

Ypiranga BA U20 2+ goals

38%

Ypiranga BA U20 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bahia de Feira U20 (draw refunded)

58%

Ypiranga BA U20 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia de Feira U20 at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Ypiranga BA U20 away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia de Feira U20 attack 1.46 + Ypiranga BA U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.58

Ypiranga BA U20 attack 0.86 + Bahia de Feira U20 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bahia de Feira U20 scores more

44%

level

25%

Ypiranga BA U20 scores more

32%

Bahia de Feira U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bahia de Feira U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff