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Youssoufia Berrechid vs Widad Témara — Botola 2 2025

Youssoufia Berrechid
Youssoufia Berrechid
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Widad Témara
Widad Témara
4/1/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 21Stade Municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Youssoufia Berrechid46%
×Draw31%
Widad Témara23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Youssoufia Berrechid
1.16
Widad Témara
0.71

Youssoufia Berrechid creates 63% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 75 away

creates per match

Youssoufia Berrechid
1.07
Widad Témara
0.83

allows per match

Youssoufia Berrechid
0.60
Widad Témara
1.24

finishing

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par
Widad Témara+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Youssoufia Berrechid ↓

Widad Témara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Youssoufia Berrechid or draw
77%
Youssoufia Berrechid or Widad Témara
69%
Draw or Widad Témara
54%

Winning margin

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+
20%
Widad Témara wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals
69%
Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals
32%
Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals
11%
Widad Témara 1+ goals
51%
Widad Témara 2+ goals
16%
Widad Témara 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)
67%
Widad Témara (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Youssoufia Berrechid at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.60 · 30 matches

Widad Témara away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 1.07 + Widad Témara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Widad Témara attack 0.83 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more
46%
level
31%
Widad Témara scores more
23%

Youssoufia Berrechid at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Youssoufia Berrechid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Youssoufia Berrechid 1–0 Widad Témara

Youssoufia Berrechid beat Widad Témara 1-0 in Botola 2 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berrechid in Berrechid.