Youssoufia Berrechid 2–0 Rapide Oued ZEM

Youssoufia Berrechid

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rapide Oued ZEM

9/11/2022

Botola 2 · Round 1Stade Municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Youssoufia Berrechid43%

×Draw32%

Rapide Oued ZEM25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Youssoufia BerrechidExpected goals in this matchRapide Oued ZEM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.76

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.10

Rapide Oued ZEM

0.76

Youssoufia Berrechid creates 45% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

1.07

creates per match

0.91

0.60

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.07

Rapide Oued ZEM

0.91

allows per match

Youssoufia Berrechid

0.60

Rapide Oued ZEM

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par

Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Youssoufia Berrechid ↓

Rapide Oued ZEM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Youssoufia Berrechid or draw

75%

Youssoufia Berrechid or Rapide Oued ZEM

68%

Draw or Rapide Oued ZEM

57%

Winning margin

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+

18%

Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals

67%

Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals

30%

Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals

10%

Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals

53%

Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals

18%

Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)

63%

Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Youssoufia Berrechid at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.60 · 30 matches

Rapide Oued ZEM away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 1.07 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 0.91 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more

43%

level

32%

Rapide Oued ZEM scores more

25%

Youssoufia Berrechid at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Youssoufia Berrechid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff