Rapide Oued ZEM 0–0 Youssoufia Berrechid

Rapide Oued ZEM

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Youssoufia Berrechid

2/20/2022

Botola Pro · Round 18Stade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Rapide Oued ZEM46%

×Draw27%

Youssoufia Berrechid26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rapide Oued ZEMExpected goals in this matchYoussoufia Berrechid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.97

Rapide Oued ZEM

1.38

Youssoufia Berrechid

0.97

Rapide Oued ZEM creates 42% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 75 away

1.03

creates per match

0.95

1.00

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Rapide Oued ZEM

1.03

Youssoufia Berrechid

0.95

allows per match

Rapide Oued ZEM

1.00

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapide Oued ZEM ↓

Youssoufia Berrechid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Rapide Oued ZEM or draw

74%

Rapide Oued ZEM or Youssoufia Berrechid

73%

Draw or Youssoufia Berrechid

54%

Winning margin

Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+

22%

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals

75%

Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals

40%

Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals

16%

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals

62%

Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals

25%

Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)

64%

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapide Oued ZEM at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.00 · 60 matches

Youssoufia Berrechid away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.72 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 1.03 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.38

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 0.95 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rapide Oued ZEM scores more

46%

level

27%

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more

26%

Rapide Oued ZEM at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rapide Oued ZEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff