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Youssoufia Berrechid vs Mouloudia Oujda — Botola Pro 2025

Youssoufia Berrechid
Youssoufia Berrechid
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mouloudia Oujda
Mouloudia Oujda
11/7/2021Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 10Stade Municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Youssoufia Berrechid37%
×Draw30%
Mouloudia Oujda32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Youssoufia Berrechid
1.08
Mouloudia Oujda
0.98

Youssoufia Berrechid creates 10% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 90 away

creates per match

Youssoufia Berrechid
0.89
Mouloudia Oujda
0.93

allows per match

Youssoufia Berrechid
1.03
Mouloudia Oujda
1.28

finishing

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par
Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Youssoufia Berrechid ↓

Mouloudia Oujda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Youssoufia Berrechid or draw
68%
Youssoufia Berrechid or Mouloudia Oujda
70%
Draw or Mouloudia Oujda
63%

Winning margin

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+
15%
Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals
66%
Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals
29%
Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals
10%
Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals
62%
Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals
26%
Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)
54%
Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Youssoufia Berrechid at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.03 · 75 matches

Mouloudia Oujda away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.28 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 0.89 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.08

Mouloudia Oujda attack 0.93 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more
37%
level
30%
Mouloudia Oujda scores more
32%

Youssoufia Berrechid at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Youssoufia Berrechid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Youssoufia Berrechid 1–0 Mouloudia Oujda

Youssoufia Berrechid beat Mouloudia Oujda 1-0 in Botola Pro on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berrechid in Berrechid.