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Mouloudia Oujda vs Youssoufia Berrechid — Botola 2 2025

Mouloudia Oujda
Mouloudia Oujda
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Youssoufia Berrechid
Youssoufia Berrechid
1/19/2025Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 15Stade d'Honneur d'Oujda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mouloudia Oujda42%
×Draw30%
Youssoufia Berrechid28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mouloudia Oujda
1.17
Youssoufia Berrechid
0.89

Mouloudia Oujda creates 31% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Mouloudia Oujda
1.10
Youssoufia Berrechid
0.87

allows per match

Mouloudia Oujda
0.90
Youssoufia Berrechid
1.23

finishing

Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par
Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mouloudia Oujda ↓

Youssoufia Berrechid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mouloudia Oujda or draw
72%
Mouloudia Oujda or Youssoufia Berrechid
70%
Draw or Youssoufia Berrechid
58%

Winning margin

Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+
18%
Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals
69%
Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals
33%
Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals
11%
Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals
59%
Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals
22%
Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)
60%
Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mouloudia Oujda at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Youssoufia Berrechid away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mouloudia Oujda attack 1.10 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 0.87 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mouloudia Oujda scores more
42%
level
30%
Youssoufia Berrechid scores more
28%

Mouloudia Oujda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mouloudia Oujda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mouloudia Oujda vs Youssoufia Berrechid

Mouloudia Oujda beat Youssoufia Berrechid 1-0 in Botola 2 on January 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stade d'Honneur d'Oujda in Oujda.