Mouloudia Oujda 1–1 Youssoufia Berrechid

Mouloudia Oujda

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Youssoufia Berrechid

2/22/2024

Botola Pro · Round 20Stade d'Honneur d'Oujda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Mouloudia Oujda46%

×Draw26%

Youssoufia Berrechid28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mouloudia OujdaExpected goals in this matchYoussoufia Berrechid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.06

Mouloudia Oujda

1.44

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.06

Mouloudia Oujda creates 36% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 75 away

1.17

creates per match

0.95

1.17

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Mouloudia Oujda

1.17

Youssoufia Berrechid

0.95

allows per match

Mouloudia Oujda

1.17

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mouloudia Oujda ↓

Youssoufia Berrechid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mouloudia Oujda or draw

72%

Mouloudia Oujda or Youssoufia Berrechid

74%

Draw or Youssoufia Berrechid

54%

Winning margin

Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+

22%

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals

76%

Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals

42%

Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals

18%

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals

65%

Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals

29%

Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)

62%

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mouloudia Oujda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 90 matches

Youssoufia Berrechid away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.72 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mouloudia Oujda attack 1.17 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.44

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 0.95 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mouloudia Oujda scores more

46%

level

26%

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more

28%

Mouloudia Oujda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mouloudia Oujda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff