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Youssoufia Berrechid vs FUS Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

Youssoufia Berrechid
Youssoufia Berrechid
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
FUS Rabat
FUS Rabat
5/28/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 28Stade Municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Youssoufia Berrechid32%
×Draw31%
FUS Rabat37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Youssoufia Berrechid
0.96
FUS Rabat
1.06

FUS Rabat creates 10% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 120 away

creates per match

Youssoufia Berrechid
0.89
FUS Rabat
1.09

allows per match

Youssoufia Berrechid
1.03
FUS Rabat
1.02

finishing

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par
FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Youssoufia Berrechid ↓

FUS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Youssoufia Berrechid or draw
63%
Youssoufia Berrechid or FUS Rabat
69%
Draw or FUS Rabat
68%

Winning margin

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+
12%
FUS Rabat wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals
62%
Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals
25%
Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals
7%
FUS Rabat 1+ goals
65%
FUS Rabat 2+ goals
29%
FUS Rabat 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)
46%
FUS Rabat (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Youssoufia Berrechid at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.03 · 75 matches

FUS Rabat away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 0.89 + FUS Rabat defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.96

FUS Rabat attack 1.09 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more
32%
level
31%
FUS Rabat scores more
37%

FUS Rabat at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Youssoufia Berrechid vs FUS Rabat

FUS Rabat beat Youssoufia Berrechid 5-0 in Botola Pro on May 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berrechid in Berrechid.