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FUS Rabat vs Youssoufia Berrechid — Botola Pro 2025

FUS Rabat
FUS Rabat
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Youssoufia Berrechid
Youssoufia Berrechid
12/28/2023Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 13Stade Prince Moulay El Hassan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

FUS Rabat50%
×Draw26%
Youssoufia Berrechid23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FUS Rabat
1.49
Youssoufia Berrechid
0.92

FUS Rabat creates 62% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 75 away

creates per match

FUS Rabat
1.26
Youssoufia Berrechid
0.95

allows per match

FUS Rabat
0.88
Youssoufia Berrechid
1.72

finishing

FUS Rabat+0.00on par
Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FUS Rabat ↓

Youssoufia Berrechid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FUS Rabat or draw
77%
FUS Rabat or Youssoufia Berrechid
74%
Draw or Youssoufia Berrechid
50%

Winning margin

FUS Rabat wins by 2+
26%
Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FUS Rabat 1+ goals
77%
FUS Rabat 2+ goals
44%
FUS Rabat 3+ goals
19%
Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals
60%
Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals
23%
Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FUS Rabat (draw refunded)
68%
Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FUS Rabat at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.88 · 121 matches

Youssoufia Berrechid away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.72 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FUS Rabat attack 1.26 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.49

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 0.95 + FUS Rabat defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FUS Rabat scores more
50%
level
26%
Youssoufia Berrechid scores more
23%

FUS Rabat at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: FUS Rabat 1–1 Youssoufia Berrechid

FUS Rabat and Youssoufia Berrechid drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on December 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Prince Moulay El Hassan in Rabat.