Young Sport Academy 1–3 PWD Bamenda: Result & Stats

Young Sport Academy

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

PWD Bamenda

Unknown 62'

Unknown 52', 38', 31'

12/22/2024

Elite One · Round 4Stade Municipal de Mbouda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Young Sport Academy39%

×Draw30%

PWD Bamenda30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young Sport AcademyExpected goals in this matchPWD Bamenda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.94

Young Sport Academy

1.11

PWD Bamenda

0.94

Young Sport Academy creates 18% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 99 away

1.05

creates per match

1.01

0.86

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Young Sport Academy

1.05

PWD Bamenda

1.01

allows per match

Young Sport Academy

0.86

PWD Bamenda

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Sport Academy+0.00on par

PWD Bamenda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Sport Academy ↓

PWD Bamenda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Young Sport Academy or draw

70%

Young Sport Academy or PWD Bamenda

70%

Draw or PWD Bamenda

61%

Winning margin

Young Sport Academy wins by 2+

16%

PWD Bamenda wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Young Sport Academy 1+ goals

67%

Young Sport Academy 2+ goals

30%

Young Sport Academy 3+ goals

10%

PWD Bamenda 1+ goals

61%

PWD Bamenda 2+ goals

24%

PWD Bamenda 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Young Sport Academy (draw refunded)

56%

PWD Bamenda (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Sport Academy at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.86 · 79 matches

PWD Bamenda away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.18 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Sport Academy attack 1.05 + PWD Bamenda defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

PWD Bamenda attack 1.01 + Young Sport Academy defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Young Sport Academy scores more

39%

level

30%

PWD Bamenda scores more

30%

Young Sport Academy at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Young Sport Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

38'

52'

62'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff