PWD Bamenda 1–0 Young Sport Academy: Result & Stats

PWD Bamenda

FT

1 – 0

Young Sport Academy

11/6/2019

Elite One · Round 5Yong Sports Academy Complex Bamenda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

PWD Bamenda45%

×Draw28%

Young Sport Academy27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PWD BamendaExpected goals in this matchYoung Sport Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.92

PWD Bamenda

1.29

Young Sport Academy

0.92

PWD Bamenda creates 40% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 79 away

1.26

creates per match

0.94

0.89

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

PWD Bamenda

1.26

Young Sport Academy

0.94

allows per match

PWD Bamenda

0.89

Young Sport Academy

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PWD Bamenda+0.00on par

Young Sport Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PWD Bamenda ↓

Young Sport Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

PWD Bamenda or draw

73%

PWD Bamenda or Young Sport Academy

72%

Draw or Young Sport Academy

55%

Winning margin

PWD Bamenda wins by 2+

21%

Young Sport Academy wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

PWD Bamenda 1+ goals

72%

PWD Bamenda 2+ goals

37%

PWD Bamenda 3+ goals

14%

Young Sport Academy 1+ goals

60%

Young Sport Academy 2+ goals

23%

Young Sport Academy 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

PWD Bamenda (draw refunded)

63%

Young Sport Academy (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PWD Bamenda at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

Young Sport Academy away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PWD Bamenda attack 1.26 + Young Sport Academy defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Young Sport Academy attack 0.94 + PWD Bamenda defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

PWD Bamenda scores more

45%

level

28%

Young Sport Academy scores more

27%

PWD Bamenda at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "PWD Bamenda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff