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Young Lions vs Tanjong Pagar — Premier League 2019

Young Lions
Young Lions
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tanjong Pagar
Tanjong Pagar
1/18/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Jalan Besar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Young Lions36%
×Draw21%
Tanjong Pagar43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Lions
1.97
Tanjong Pagar
2.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 70 away

creates per match

Young Lions
1.05
Tanjong Pagar
1.47

allows per match

Young Lions
2.83
Tanjong Pagar
2.89

finishing

Young Lions+0.00on par
Tanjong Pagar+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Lions ↓

Tanjong Pagar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Young Lions or draw
57%
Young Lions or Tanjong Pagar
79%
Draw or Tanjong Pagar
64%

Winning margin

Young Lions wins by 2+
19%
Tanjong Pagar wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Young Lions 1+ goals
86%
Young Lions 2+ goals
58%
Young Lions 3+ goals
31%
Tanjong Pagar 1+ goals
88%
Tanjong Pagar 2+ goals
63%
Tanjong Pagar 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Young Lions (draw refunded)
46%
Tanjong Pagar (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Lions at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.83 · 82 matches

Tanjong Pagar away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.89 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Lions attack 1.05 + Tanjong Pagar defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 1.97

Tanjong Pagar attack 1.47 + Young Lions defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Young Lions scores more
36%
level
21%
Tanjong Pagar scores more
43%

Tanjong Pagar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tanjong Pagar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Young Lions vs Tanjong Pagar

Young Lions and Tanjong Pagar drew 1-1 in Premier League on January 18, 2025.

The match was played at Jalan Besar Stadium in Singapore.