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Tanjong Pagar vs Young Lions — Premier League 2019

Tanjong Pagar
Tanjong Pagar
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Young Lions
Young Lions
9/25/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Jurong East Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Tanjong Pagar44%
×Draw21%
Young Lions35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanjong Pagar
2.05
Young Lions
1.80

Tanjong Pagar creates 14% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 82 away

creates per match

Tanjong Pagar
1.39
Young Lions
1.10

allows per match

Tanjong Pagar
2.50
Young Lions
2.71

finishing

Tanjong Pagar+0.00on par
Young Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanjong Pagar ↓

Young Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Tanjong Pagar or draw
65%
Tanjong Pagar or Young Lions
79%
Draw or Young Lions
56%

Winning margin

Tanjong Pagar wins by 2+
25%
Young Lions wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tanjong Pagar 1+ goals
87%
Tanjong Pagar 2+ goals
61%
Tanjong Pagar 3+ goals
33%
Young Lions 1+ goals
83%
Young Lions 2+ goals
54%
Young Lions 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Tanjong Pagar (draw refunded)
56%
Young Lions (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanjong Pagar at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.50 · 70 matches

Young Lions away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.71 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanjong Pagar attack 1.39 + Young Lions defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.05

Young Lions attack 1.10 + Tanjong Pagar defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tanjong Pagar scores more
44%
level
21%
Young Lions scores more
35%

Tanjong Pagar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tanjong Pagar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tanjong Pagar vs Young Lions

Tanjong Pagar beat Young Lions 5-1 in Premier League on September 25, 2025.

The match was played at Jurong East Stadium in Jurong.