Young Lions 1–1 DPMM FC Brunei: Result & Stats

Young Lions

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

DPMM FC Brunei

3/8/2025

Premier League · Round 28Jalan Besar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Young Lions22%

×Draw20%

DPMM FC Brunei58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young LionsExpected goals in this matchDPMM FC Brunei

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

2.27

Young Lions

1.34

DPMM FC Brunei

2.27

DPMM FC Brunei creates 69% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 40 away

1.05

creates per match

1.70

2.83

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Young Lions

1.05

DPMM FC Brunei

1.70

allows per match

Young Lions

2.83

DPMM FC Brunei

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Lions+0.00on par

DPMM FC Brunei+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Lions ↓

DPMM FC Brunei →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Young Lions or draw

42%

Young Lions or DPMM FC Brunei

80%

Draw or DPMM FC Brunei

78%

Winning margin

Young Lions wins by 2+

9%

DPMM FC Brunei wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Young Lions 1+ goals

74%

Young Lions 2+ goals

39%

Young Lions 3+ goals

15%

DPMM FC Brunei 1+ goals

90%

DPMM FC Brunei 2+ goals

66%

DPMM FC Brunei 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Young Lions (draw refunded)

28%

DPMM FC Brunei (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Lions at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.83 · 82 matches

DPMM FC Brunei away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.63 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Lions attack 1.05 + DPMM FC Brunei defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.34

DPMM FC Brunei attack 1.70 + Young Lions defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Young Lions scores more

22%

level

20%

DPMM FC Brunei scores more

58%

DPMM FC Brunei at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "DPMM FC Brunei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff