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DPMM FC Brunei vs Young Lions — Premier League 2019

DPMM FC Brunei
DPMM FC Brunei
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Young Lions
Young Lions
7/27/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Jalan Besar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

DPMM FC Brunei59%
×Draw20%
Young Lions21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DPMM FC Brunei
2.30
Young Lions
1.33

DPMM FC Brunei creates 73% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 82 away

creates per match

DPMM FC Brunei
1.90
Young Lions
1.10

allows per match

DPMM FC Brunei
1.56
Young Lions
2.71

finishing

DPMM FC Brunei+0.00on par
Young Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DPMM FC Brunei ↓

Young Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

DPMM FC Brunei or draw
79%
DPMM FC Brunei or Young Lions
80%
Draw or Young Lions
41%

Winning margin

DPMM FC Brunei wins by 2+
37%
Young Lions wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

DPMM FC Brunei 1+ goals
90%
DPMM FC Brunei 2+ goals
67%
DPMM FC Brunei 3+ goals
40%
Young Lions 1+ goals
74%
Young Lions 2+ goals
38%
Young Lions 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

DPMM FC Brunei (draw refunded)
73%
Young Lions (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DPMM FC Brunei at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.56 · 41 matches

Young Lions away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.71 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DPMM FC Brunei attack 1.90 + Young Lions defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.30

Young Lions attack 1.10 + DPMM FC Brunei defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

DPMM FC Brunei scores more
59%
level
20%
Young Lions scores more
21%

DPMM FC Brunei at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "DPMM FC Brunei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: DPMM FC Brunei vs Young Lions

Young Lions beat DPMM FC Brunei 3-1 in Premier League on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at Jalan Besar Stadium in Singapore.