Young Buffaloes 2–0 Sidwashini United

Young Buffaloes

FT

2 – 0

Sidwashini United

4/17/2025

Premier League · Round 15Mayaluka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Young Buffaloes65%

×Draw22%

Sidwashini United13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young BuffaloesExpected goals in this matchSidwashini United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.68

Young Buffaloes

1.85

Sidwashini United

0.68

Young Buffaloes creates 172% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 13 away

1.84

creates per match

0.69

0.66

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Young Buffaloes

1.84

Sidwashini United

0.69

allows per match

Young Buffaloes

0.66

Sidwashini United

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Buffaloes+0.00on par

Sidwashini United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Buffaloes ↓

Sidwashini United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Young Buffaloes or draw

87%

Young Buffaloes or Sidwashini United

78%

Draw or Sidwashini United

35%

Winning margin

Young Buffaloes wins by 2+

39%

Sidwashini United wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Young Buffaloes 1+ goals

84%

Young Buffaloes 2+ goals

55%

Young Buffaloes 3+ goals

28%

Sidwashini United 1+ goals

49%

Sidwashini United 2+ goals

15%

Sidwashini United 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Young Buffaloes (draw refunded)

83%

Sidwashini United (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Buffaloes at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.66 · 83 matches

Sidwashini United away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Buffaloes attack 1.84 + Sidwashini United defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.85

Sidwashini United attack 0.69 + Young Buffaloes defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Young Buffaloes scores more

65%

level

22%

Sidwashini United scores more

13%

Young Buffaloes at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Young Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff