Sidwashini United 0–5 Young Buffaloes

Sidwashini United

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 0

Young Buffaloes

11/30/2024

Premier League · Round 7Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sidwashini United13%

×Draw20%

Young Buffaloes67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sidwashini UnitedExpected goals in this matchYoung Buffaloes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

2.04

Sidwashini United

0.78

Young Buffaloes

2.04

Young Buffaloes creates 162% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 86 away

0.77

creates per match

1.86

2.23

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Sidwashini United

0.77

Young Buffaloes

1.86

allows per match

Sidwashini United

2.23

Young Buffaloes

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sidwashini United+0.00on par

Young Buffaloes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sidwashini United ↓

Young Buffaloes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sidwashini United or draw

33%

Sidwashini United or Young Buffaloes

80%

Draw or Young Buffaloes

87%

Winning margin

Sidwashini United wins by 2+

4%

Young Buffaloes wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Sidwashini United 1+ goals

54%

Sidwashini United 2+ goals

18%

Sidwashini United 3+ goals

4%

Young Buffaloes 1+ goals

87%

Young Buffaloes 2+ goals

60%

Young Buffaloes 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Sidwashini United (draw refunded)

17%

Young Buffaloes (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sidwashini United at home — creates 0.77, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

Young Buffaloes away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sidwashini United attack 0.77 + Young Buffaloes defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.78

Young Buffaloes attack 1.86 + Sidwashini United defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sidwashini United scores more

13%

level

20%

Young Buffaloes scores more

67%

Young Buffaloes at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Young Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff