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Young Buffaloes vs Seven Dreams — Premier League 2020

Young Buffaloes
Young Buffaloes
FT
3 – 0
Seven Dreams
Seven Dreams
1/28/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Mhlume Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Young Buffaloes72%
×Draw19%
Seven Dreams9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Buffaloes
2.04
Seven Dreams
0.56

Young Buffaloes creates 264% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 13 away

creates per match

Young Buffaloes
1.84
Seven Dreams
0.46

allows per match

Young Buffaloes
0.66
Seven Dreams
2.23

finishing

Young Buffaloes+0.00on par
Seven Dreams+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Buffaloes ↓

Seven Dreams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Young Buffaloes or draw
91%
Young Buffaloes or Seven Dreams
81%
Draw or Seven Dreams
28%

Winning margin

Young Buffaloes wins by 2+
46%
Seven Dreams wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Young Buffaloes 1+ goals
87%
Young Buffaloes 2+ goals
60%
Young Buffaloes 3+ goals
33%
Seven Dreams 1+ goals
43%
Seven Dreams 2+ goals
11%
Seven Dreams 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Young Buffaloes (draw refunded)
89%
Seven Dreams (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Buffaloes at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.66 · 83 matches

Seven Dreams away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Buffaloes attack 1.84 + Seven Dreams defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.04

Seven Dreams attack 0.46 + Young Buffaloes defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Young Buffaloes scores more
72%
level
19%
Seven Dreams scores more
9%

Young Buffaloes at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Young Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Young Buffaloes 3–0 Seven Dreams

Young Buffaloes beat Seven Dreams 3-0 in Premier League on January 28, 2023.

The match was played at Mhlume Stadium in Siteki.