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Seven Dreams vs Young Buffaloes — Premier League 2020

Seven Dreams
Seven Dreams
FT
1 – 1
Young Buffaloes
Young Buffaloes
3/4/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Seven Dreams12%
×Draw21%
Young Buffaloes67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seven Dreams
0.66
Young Buffaloes
1.89

Young Buffaloes creates 186% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 86 away

creates per match

Seven Dreams
0.54
Young Buffaloes
1.86

allows per match

Seven Dreams
1.92
Young Buffaloes
0.78

finishing

Seven Dreams+0.00on par
Young Buffaloes+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seven Dreams ↓

Young Buffaloes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–115%
0–214%
0–39%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Seven Dreams or draw
33%
Seven Dreams or Young Buffaloes
79%
Draw or Young Buffaloes
88%

Winning margin

Seven Dreams wins by 2+
3%
Young Buffaloes wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Seven Dreams 1+ goals
48%
Seven Dreams 2+ goals
14%
Seven Dreams 3+ goals
3%
Young Buffaloes 1+ goals
85%
Young Buffaloes 2+ goals
56%
Young Buffaloes 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Seven Dreams (draw refunded)
16%
Young Buffaloes (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seven Dreams at home — creates 0.54, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Young Buffaloes away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seven Dreams attack 0.54 + Young Buffaloes defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.66

Young Buffaloes attack 1.86 + Seven Dreams defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Seven Dreams scores more
12%
level
21%
Young Buffaloes scores more
67%

Young Buffaloes at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Young Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Seven Dreams vs Young Buffaloes

Seven Dreams and Young Buffaloes drew 1-1 in Premier League on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Prince of Wales Stadium in Mbabane.